The global supply chain is not expected to emerge for several months from the turbulent zone it entered in 2021, due to the explosion in demand driven by a sharp increase in consumption in Europe and the United States. The economic outlook for an increase in world trade in goods for 2021 is + 11.4%.
WW / GLOBAL ECONOMY:
The global supply chain is not expected to emerge for several months from the turbulent zone it entered in 2021, due to the explosion in demand driven by a sharp increase in consumption in Europe and the United States. The economic outlook for an increase in world trade in goods for 2021 is + 11.4%. Standardization will take time. According to IMF forecasts, global growth will be more moderate in 2022, but it is still expected to reach 4.9%.
Trade-in goods will also continue to expand, although again growth will weaken. The tensions observed in the supply chain should therefore subside, but they will not disappear and transport prices will remain at high levels.
(source Upply 24/9 -)
This summer, air cargo capacity fell by 13% between July 27 and August 9, compared to the same weeks in 2019.
This second quarter showed a mixed recovery in air cargo capacity, most trade routes still being well below pre-pandemic levels. Load factors and yields remained at historically high levels during the last quarter, despite the reduction in capacity, the increased proportion of capacity by freighters contributed to this.
As far as air imports are concerned, Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe are showing the strongest recovery, with more than one million tons of additional air cargo in the past three months.
There is also an overall change in freight density which has increased since the start of the pandemic, in part due to a change in demand. In terms of capacity and tariffs, due to the COVID-19 policy in Asia and the countries of the sub-Indian subcontinent, there is a large number of cancellations and prices have increased sharply, especially at the beginning. of the high season. The operator of one of the busiest ports in the world has suggested that global supply chain bottlenecks will last for around two years.
Experts expect bottlenecks to continue until 2023 and warn that the issues will result in higher costs for shipping goods.
Some analysts and other port operators have said that supply chains are struggling to keep pace with demand and deal with labor disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, lockdowns, and quarantines.
The world’s largest shipping firm, A.P. Moller-Maersk, warned that bottlenecks could last longer than anticipated.
“There have been many challenging periods over the years, but the situation over the last 12 months is unique, in as much as it has had a global impact. All continents are seeing high volumes and operational challenges, restricting both ocean and land-side capacity at the same time,” Maersk said in a mid-September update.
Last week, several industry groups that represent truck drivers, shipping workers, and airline workers issued a warning to the U.N. General Assembly that governments need to work toward improving freedom of movement relating to trade.
They warned of a “global transport system collapse” if nothing is done and suggested that “global supply chains are beginning to buckle as two years’ worth of strain on transport workers take their toll,” according to an open letter.
It was signed by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the International Road Transport Union (IRU), and the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF), which represent some 65 million transport workers around the world.
Power cuts in China:
Factories in some of China's most industrialized provinces (Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang) either cut production or shut down temporarily this month after power cuts imposed by the government to reduce emissions of carbon.
These measures are likely to further increase the delay in receiving containers in the short term at the ports of Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen.