Orchestrating logistics in a volatile world is complicated and includes complexities that are unique to supply chain management.
The unprecedented pandemic-era disruptions to the freight market served as a catalyst for logistics technology adoption as shippers, forwarders, and carriers searched for the right tools to address their specific pain points.
Going to 2025, experts say that the freight market will not ease and that shippers will face new challenges.
AIR FREIGHT
Growing air cargo demand driven by e-commerce and semiconductor volumes is expected to result in another tight air cargo market in 2025 with shippers facing the prospect of their transport spend rising further.
Indeed, this increase in airfreight demand is expected to rise by 14% annually until 2026.
As a result of demand growing faster than supply, airfreight rates are likely to remain elevated in 2025, although this will vary from trade lane to trade lane.
The threat of further strikes at container ports on the US east coast and Gulf Coast in January could also cause congestion and deteriorating schedule reliability for box lines and result in modal shift to air.
We are entering an area with unpredictable turbulence.
Actually, several trends are expected to continue to be favorable for air cargo in 2025: these include continued geopolitical uncertainty in sea shipments routed through the Suez Canal and booming e-commerce originating in Asia.
There are also a number of political risks for the air cargo and overall airline industry in 2025.
Looking ahead, there is an expectation that widebody capacity will be in short supply and freighters could be shifted to Asia from elsewhere, such as Latin America or Africa.
IATA indicated that changes to tariffs and trade with the incoming Trump administration are a major concern, but said there could also be benefits.
Tariffs and trade wars would likely dampen demand for air cargo and potentially also impact business travel.
Should these policies rekindle inflation with higher interest rates as a policy response, negative impacts on demand would be exacerbated.
Airfreight has reached a tipping point when it comes to benefitting from the Red Sea crisis, while e-commerce is exacerbating trade lane imbalances.
The proposed annual block space agreement (BSA) rates to Europe from a few major freighter operators have significantly increased.
It’s more than $1.40/kg on top of what it was in 2024.
The anticipated implementation of US tariffs on Chinese imports in early 2025 is prompting a pre-tariff rush, leading to heightened demand in Q1 as businesses seek to stockpile goods.
SEA FREIGHT
On Asia-Europe trades, the most expensive flows at the moment, a certain pressure is felt as the CNY approaches, which is completely normal at this time of year.
On the other hand, it seems that port congestion is impacting certain large ports in Asia and Europe.
Even though the situation has improved the ports of Shanghai and Ningbo are still up to 2 days late.
In Northern Europe, which is seeing December shipments arrive, congestion is particularly high in Hamburg, Rotterdam, Antwerp and London Gateway.
Docking delays can be up to 4 days.
USA
The incoming administration is proposing significant tariff increases, ranging from 10% to 60% or more, depending on the country of origin.