During current highly volatile freight rates and major geopolitical challenges times, forecasts are subject to a high degree of uncertainty.
AIR FREIGHT
The latest global air freight statistics reveal that the activity from Asia picked up only slightly after the last Golden Week in China, contrary to normal seasonal trends.
During the week of October 7 to 13, outgoing volumes from the Asia Pacific zone did not at all catch up with the dip caused by the Chinese holiday.
A year ago, they had completely recovered the week following Golden Week.
This anomaly offers an interesting insight into the market: if this rebound is modest, this could be linked to the fact that major Western shippers have anticipated key deadlines this year, while the new wave of e-commerce (Shein, Temu...) maintains constant pressure on air freight from China.
However, a real peak season can still occur at the end of the year.
Indeed, in recent days, a sharp rise in rates from Asia seems to have signaled the start of a peak season which could peak at the beginning of December.
A clear sign is that e-commerce shipments are absorbing a growing share of the capacity available from Asia.
SEA FREIGHT
An incandescent Middle East, rising tensions between China and Taiwan, the possibility of a new Trump presidency, the return of the risk of a port strike on the East Coast in January and new carbon taxes weighing on the sea freight market...
What is certain is that in 2025 nothing will be.
Amid such widespread disruption, experts expect ocean freight rates to remain high, even without another strike in the United States.
The market is showing signs of a return to increasing prices at a slow pace (…).
Even if the Suez Canal reopens, (which is not expected to happen realistically before 2026 ) container freight rates are not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Since 2019, average global freight rates have already increased by 87%.
While waiting for 2025, it is already difficult to see clearly in this final quarter.
The possibility of a rebound in the market in November, and therefore in rates, is still considered.
Between Asia and Europe, access to capacity could become problematic from mid-November until Chinese New Year.
The ship occupancy rate observed from China remains rather high.
On the Asia-Europe routes, many ships are already fully booked for the next 4 weeks.
There is a high probability that the peak season will be very strong, like last year.
BREAKING NEWS
A strong typhoon made landfall on Taiwan's east coast on Thursday, the largest storm by size to hit the island in nearly 30 years, closing financial markets, causing hundreds of flights to be cancelled and reducing rail services.
The government said the typhoon knocked out power to nearly half a million households.
The storm hit the mountainous and sparsely populated east coast county of Taitung, according to Taiwan's Central Weather Administration, with strong winds and torrential rain affecting almost all of the island.