AIR FREIGHT
European air freight has benefited from summer schedule implementation, with increased passenger flight frequencies during peak travel season, providing additional belly capacity.
This seasonal capacity increase, combined with demand normalization following tariff-related frontloading, has created more balanced market conditions across most European routes.
European carriers have managed this capacity with 4-10-day booking windows, varying by cargo profile and airport congestion.
Rate levels remain stable across most European networks, though premium and main deck capacity may experience occasional spikes related to seasonal cargo movements.
Schedule reliability remains generally stable across European networks.
Airport congestion at Amsterdam Schiphol and Frankfurt airports continues to impact ground handling times and cargo processing, requiring shippers to build additional buffer time into delivery schedules.
Two major headwinds are expected to shape air freight trends in the coming months.
On one hand, the AI boom and high-value tech shipments: the AI sector continues to drive significant air freight demand.
Indeed, the growing need for data storage infrastructure is fueling shipments of:
- Data racks, hard drives, and computer chips
- Specialized tools required for AI-related manufacturing
These high-value, time-sensitive commodities are primarily sourced from Southeast Asia and Taiwan, reinforcing increased air freight demand from these regions.
On the other hand, the global airfreight sector is set for a significant shift in the coming months due to evolving trade policies, tariffs, and fluctuating demand.
As the U.S. have imposed new tariffs on key imports from China and other major trading partners, disruptions to the global supply chain will impact air cargo volumes.
While some businesses may explore alternative trade routes or sourcing strategies, others may turn to airfreight to bypass bottlenecks and meet urgent delivery needs.
These shifts could drive short-term volatility, with potential surges in air cargo traffic as companies adjust to new trade dynamics.
SEA FREIGHT
The second half of 2025 is expected to remain affected by market volatility, primarily driven by softening demand and sustained downward pressure on ocean freight rates.
Spot rates continue to fluctuate, shaped by ongoing geopolitical tensions, evolving regulatory frameworks - particularly related to emission targets - and shifting global trade patterns.
Amid these uncertainties, contract negotiations are becoming increasingly complex.
Shippers are placing greater emphasis on service reliability and carbon efficiency, moving beyond a cost-focused approach in favor of more sustainable and resilient supply chain partnerships.
Indeed, ocean freight markets are undergoing a significant correction: carriers are removing capacity in response to weaker demand following changes to U.S. reciprocal tariffs that were announced August 1 st and went into effect August 7th , 2025.
The situation is complicated by ongoing structural constraints like diversions away from the Suez Canal (they continue to take up 15%–20% of global vessel capacity), widespread port congestion across Europe, Asia, and Latin America that further limits effective capacity utilization.
Persistent congestion at major north European ports—including Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Antwerp—continues constraining capacity by extending vessel turnaround times and reducing effective service frequency.
Here's how it works: instead of a typical two-or-three-day port stay, vessels are now spending longer due to berth delays and slower cargo handling.
This means a ship that normally completes 12 round trips per year can now complete only eight or nine trips, reducing the total shipping capacity available to the market by roughly 25%–30%.
With fewer sailings available, but similar amounts of cargo needing transport, shippers must compete for the limited space.
This is driving rates higher, regardless of whether overall trade volumes are growing or declining.
These factors mean that even with reduced U.S. import volumes, export cargo faces persistent space shortages and rate pressure.
In the meantime, global ocean carriers have achieved meaningful progress in schedule consistency, with June data (the latest available) showing global schedule reliability climbing to 67.4%, the highest reading since late 2023.
The average delay for late vessels also eased to 4.5 days, which is the best performance in nearly two years.
The Asia-North Europe trade lane demonstrates markedly different dynamics from Trans-Pacific routes.
This lane has remained resilient, with rate increases implemented in July extending into August.
Asia–Mediterranean routes present a contrasting situation, with spot rates continuing to slide during European summer holidays.
In response to accelerating rate erosion, Ocean Alliance carriers have planned approximately 25% capacity reductions to restore market balance.
