AIR FREIGHT

The conflict in the Middle East has put a stop to flights in and out of the region, with major operators declaring that air cargo operations are currently disrupted.

US and Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Iranian retaliation, triggering immediate airspace closures across the region.

Iran, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE have fully or partially shut down civilian airspace.

Syria remains restricted.

No reopening is announced for an unknown duration that could range from hours to several days, depending on de-escalation.

As a consequence, Middle East carriers—led by Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad—handle roughly twenty-five to thirty percent of global air cargo volume annually, with Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serving as primary transit hubs.

Virtually all Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf flows route through their airspace.

Closures cut this lifeline, removing critical belly and freighter lift overnight.

• Grounded Operations: airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad have suspended all flights to/from their hubs (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi).
• Rerouting & Capacity Strain: remaining traffic diverts north via Turkey or south over the Arabian Sea, adding two to five hours per leg.
• Hub Disruptions: Dubai (the world's busiest cargo airport), Doha, and Abu Dhabi terminals are idle.

This stops both dedicated freighters and belly-hold capacity on passenger aircrafts.

Extra fuel burn (30-50%) reduces payload—meaning less cargo can be loaded per flight, even on surviving routes.

This will mean more freights will be offloaded and grounded.

Passenger carriers, which carry 40-60% of regional air freight, face widespread cancellations and delays.

Ground handling is halted: warehouses are backlogged, especially for perishables, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and e-commerce.

With Qatar and UAE airlines offline, Asia-Europe/Gulf lanes lose 20-30% of capacity short-term—compounded by payload cuts from fuel burn.

Immediate consequences to be expected are:

• Spot rates could quickly surge 50-100%+ on rerouted flights (fuel + scarcity).
• Backlogs mounting—time-sensitive freight delayed days.
• Pressure to pivot: Istanbul, Frankfurt, or sea alternatives where feasible
• Charter operation could be vital for sensitive products.
• Temporary suspensions and operational adjustments have been announced by Lufthansa Cargo, Cargolux, Etihad Cargo, Cathay Cargo, Saudi Cargo and Turkish Airlines Cargo.

The disruption is not limited to traffic to and from the Middle East.

As Gulf hubs play a significant role in connecting Europe, Asia and the Indian Subcontinent, reduced connectivity is beginning to impact certain Asia–Europe and Asia–India lanes.

In the short to medium term, capacity constraints, rate volatility and extended transit times are expected.

SEA FREIGHT

The geopolitical situation described above also has direct consequences on sea freight.

Following military action in the region, the Strait of Hormuz is currently closed to safe transit, resulting in the complete suspension of vessel movements into and out of the Arabian Gulf.

Additionally, major carriers have suspended transits through the Bab al Mandab Strait, leading to rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and extending transit times across several global trade lanes.

Due to the rapidly evolving security situation, there may be periods of time where it is not possible to make and or confirm bookings for cargo destined for or originating from the affected areas.

The situation across the Middle East remains highly dynamic, with multiple ports and strategic waterways impacted:

• Closed ports
  • Saudi Arabia: Dammam is currently closed
  • Bahrain: Khalifa Bin Salman Port is closed and undergoing damage assessment
  • United Arab Emirates: All ports except Khorfakkan are closed
  • Kuwait: Shuaiba port is restarting operations
• Open but operationally constrained ports
  • Khorfakkan (UAE) remains open
  • Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, and Jordanian ports are currently operational, but may face indirect impacts from rerouting, hub congestion, and broader regional delays due to the ongoing hostilities

The Strait of Hormuz is fully closed to all commercial container traffic, preventing direct access to the Arabian Gulf.

Major carriers have halted passage through the Bab el Mandeb Strait, forcing rerouting and significantly prolonging voyages.

 ADDITIONAL TARIFF UNCERTAINTY

Following a few months of relative stability, fresh changes to the US tariff landscape look set to bring further uncertainty and volatility to markets, particularly for US-bound air cargo.

After the US Supreme Court this week ruled against the Trump administration’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, which it determined to be unlawful, President Trump implemented a temporary 10% global tariff (set to expire on 24 July), threatening to raise it to 15%.

Trump also issued an executive order that maintains the suspension of ‘de minimis’ exemptions, although new rules will apply to postal entries, which become subject to the 10% global tariff until it expires, or until US Customs establishes a new entry process for postal shipments.

It remains to be seen what the impact of these changes on air cargo flows will be.