TRANSPORTATION MARKET UPDATE JANUARY- 2026 | AIR & SEA FREIGHT

The year 2025 was another tumultuous one for both ocean and air freight markets.

Some of the key drivers of freight trends in 2025 are likely to continue impacting markets in 2026, while others may give way to new factors and trends. 

What follows is a rundown of those key drivers in 2025, and data-based projections for what these could mean for the new year.

After a rocky 2025 year, here are some expectations for 2026:

• Trade war dynamics disrupted the typical transpacific ocean freight rhythms in 2025.
• A more stable US tariff landscape suggests a likely return to seasonality in 2026.
• Fleet growth created oversupply despite continued Red Sea diversions - and drove consistently lower year-on-year rates in 2025 – a trend likely to continue into 2026 as more new vessels enter the market.
• Global ocean and air cargo demand proved resilient despite the trade war, as China diversified its trading partners. IATA projects 2.6% global air cargo volume growth in 2026 as these trends are likely to continue.
• Air cargo rates in 2025 remained remarkably stable despite these volume shifts as carriers rapidly redeployed capacity from transpacific to growing lanes like Asia-Europe.

AIR FREIGHT

Air cargo proved resilient despite the trade war, both globally and in the US.

The US de minimis closure for China initially caused a sharp decrease in transpac volumes; but by July, demand recovered to 2024 levels through e-commerce adjustments and increased general cargo from places like Vietnam where electronics exports have surged.

Volumes on Asia-Europe, intra-Asia and other air cargo lanes grew – even while transpacific volumes stalled, partly from Chinese exports shifting to other markets.

In the medium term, regulatory changes will reshape market balances.

The slowdown in Chinese cross-border e-commerce is now accompanied by stricter regulations within China.

At the same time, Europe is tightening its oversight of small parcels.

This new regulatory landscape is expected to mechanically slow down e-commerce growth, favouring regional warehousing strategies or consolidated shipments that are less dependent on air freight.

For both companies and freight forwarders, the priority will no longer be to absorb volume at all costs, but to preserve profitability on increasingly contested routes.

They will also have to contend with a new factor: contractual caution.

By the end of 2025, only 24% of volumes were covered by one-year contracts, compared to 38% in the first quarter.

SEA FREIGHT

Carriers are taking cautious steps toward a Red Sea return, increasing the likelihood of resumed Suez traffic in 2026; the transition will initially cause significant congestion and delays at European hubs as well as upward pressure on rates.

Once the congestion unwinds, though, the released capacity will exacerbate oversupply.

Besides, the approach of the Chinese New Year, on February 17, is being felt.

The prolonged factory closures in China, which can last up to three weeks, are prompting exporters to accelerate their shipments.

This frontloading strategy results in a strong surge in capacity on the Asia-Europe route.

Shipping companies are looking to maximise loads, and at the same time, the lengthening of transit times, notably due to numerous geopolitical tensions, increases pressure on logistics deadlines in Europe, prompting shippers to secure their supplies.

Under these conditions, maritime freight rates departing from Asia are skyrocketing: on the Asia-Europe route, the main indices have recorded an increase of 20 to 50% in a few weeks.

The peak is particularly pronounced in the Mediterranean.

These trends provide a set of clues that confirm that the market is being supported in the short term by supply adjustments, rather than by a structural recovery in demand.

To put it more simply, it is still difficult to make long-term plans at the moment – at least beyond the Chinese New Year.