AIR FREIGHT

Air cargo capacity out of Southeast Asia is now dominated by artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor air cargo shipments instead of e-commerce.

Air freight rates stayed high in June but began stabilizing as capacity returned after holiday disruptions and fuel prices eased.

The market was more balanced by late June, despite renewed Middle East tensions, highlighting the resilience of global air cargo.

Rates remained supported by limited capacity and strong demand for time-sensitive shipments.

Yields are still well above 2025 levels, especially across Europe–Middle East, Asia–Middle East, Asia–Europe, and Asia–North America routes, driven by disruptions, rerouting, and strong tech demand.

Airfreight rates are expected to rise 5% to 15% this year rather than fall, while air cargo demand expectations have also shifted upwards to the impact of the Middle East conflict: this escalation, in February, removed 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight while demand grew 4% over the same period.

The supply-demand imbalance pushed rates higher across the board.

Global air cargo rates, combining spot and long-term contracts, rose 17% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.

AI-related business is aiding robust air cargo demand, driven by semiconductor and hardware shipments,

Though AI-related goods still account for less than 10% of total air cargo volumes, they are concentrated on the Transpacific, the year’s strongest trade corridor.

SEA FREIGHT

The surge of ocean rates has softened; space is still tight, congestion in Asia is considerable, and we are at record levels with over 3.61 million TEU of port congestion, with 10.6% of the global fleet.

The Asia–Europe trade lane continues to face indirect impacts from the prolonged security situation in the Red Sea.

Most major carriers are still avoiding the Suez Canal and routing vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in longer transit times and tighter effective vessel capacity.

The Transpacific market remains strong, supported by peak-season cargo movements and inventory replenishment activity in North America.

It seems that carriers are maintaining pricing discipline, while spot rates continue to experience upward pressure.

Demand remains particularly robust on Asia–US West Coast services.

At the same time, port congestion in parts of Asia has worsened due to vessel bunching and adverse weather conditions: 3,400,000 TEUs- that's the containerised capacity currently stuck in port queues in Asia and Europe.