US President Donald Trump’s higher taxes on goods entering the US — and threats to raise them even higher — have led companies to rush orders to avoid extra costs.
This indicates strong trade volume growth in the first several months of 2025 due to importers moving up purchases of goods in anticipation of higher tariffs in the future.
AIR FREIGHT
In air cargo, Index rates data show that prices are easing slightly but are stable overall for the major lanes.
Flight cancellations in the Middle East have contributed to Middle East – N. America rates climbing, though rates for many other Middle East lanes went unchanged.
SEA FREIGHT
The global container shipping industry is experiencing unprecedented levels of fleet utilization, with commercial idle capacity hitting a remarkable low of just 0.6% of the world’s 32.0 Mteu’s fleet.
This development comes amid a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions affecting maritime trade.
The potential reintroduction of tariffs any time soon could significantly impact trade patterns and vessel deployment strategies across major shipping routes.
Several factors are tightening capacity: suspended US-China tariffs have increased Transpacific shipping as companies rush to move goods before August’s potential tariff reinstatement.
The Red Sea diversions and global port congestions further strain vessel availability, with estimates indicating that ships rerouting around Africa are reducing global shipping capacity by 8%.
Some of the capacity additions to the transpacific came via capacity subtractions from other lanes, including from Asia - Europe.
Together with capacity reductions and port congestions – though delays are easing – the start of Asia - Europe peak season demand is supporting spot rates that are up 24%.