AIR FREIGHT
Airfreight rates are remaining elevated as capacity constraints, geopolitical disruptions, and rising fuel costs continue to shape the market environment.
Overall capacity growth continues to be limited by ongoing geopolitical disruptions and elevated fuel costs.
Asia Pacific technology and e-commerce exports continue to sustain airfreight demand, but capacity growth is not relieving market pressure.
SEA FREIGHT
Meanwhile, in the ocean market, an early peak season is tightening an already constrained capacity.
Despite the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, ocean supply chain networks are not expected to fully recover until mid-September 2026.
Spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast and East Coast have spiked 192% and 158% respectively since late February, and are expected to keep climbing for at least another four weeks.
Many vessels are already full through July.
Some fuel pressure relief is on the horizon — marine bunker fuel prices dropped around 20% in mid-June — but container rates continue to rise due to early peak season demand.
Experts expect a three-stage recovery: first, extracting stranded vessels from the Persian Gulf; then, restoring feeder and regional services; and finally, resuming major long-haul routes on Asia-to-North America and Europe trade lanes.
Bunker adjustment factors will take effect from 1 July and are expected to be higher than current levels.
Shippers are responding by moving cargo earlier and booking more space than needed to protect against rollovers.
Congestion, rerouting, and persistent disruption are eroding usable capacity, while demand continues to build.
Global container shipping is entering an earlier than expected rise in demand, challenging the traditional cadence of the peak season.
Recent developments indicate that cargo flows are being pulled forward, particularly on the Transpacific and Asia-Europe trades.
Several factors are shaping this shift: concerns around future tariff changes, uncertainty across supply chains, and pressure on operational costs are prompting shippers to secure capacity sooner.
At the same time, limited vessel availability and disruptions affecting key maritime routes are tightening supply, reinforcing the need for earlier planning.
The result is a demand pattern that is less concentrated and more extended.
This behaviour reflects a more cautious approach, with importers seeking to mitigate risk by spreading shipments and avoiding potential bottlenecks later in the year.
For the industry, this shift underscores a broader adjustment in how peak season is defined and managed.
Flexibility, forward visibility, and timely booking decisions are becoming essential to maintaining continuity.
As the market recalibrates, the ability to anticipate demand movements will remain critical for both shippers and service providers.
USA
The end of DDP in the US: a new US Executive Order, “Strengthening Customs Enforcement”, was signed on 3 June 2026.
It makes it effectively unworkable for foreign sellers to act as the importer of record in the United States: foreign sellers lose access to simplified entry, must hold real assets and financial guarantees in the US, and face minimum penalties of 50% of the goods’ value for violations.
In practice, responsibility for US import duties shifts to the American buyer.