GLOBAL
Global trade is being reshaped in real time.
Tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty are altering trade lanes, fragmenting supply chains, and increasing the premium on speed and reliability.
Iran war and Strait of Hormuz: contained for containers, but watch fuel and surcharges: the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for nearly two weeks since the start of the war, critically disrupting ~20% of global oil flows but only ~2–3% of container volumes.
The closure is causing localized congestion at alternative ports (Oman, India, Sri Lanka) and some equipment imbalance, but broader operational disruption remains limited.
The bigger concern: carriers are already announcing emergency fuel surcharges of $150–$400/FEU across all lanes as oil prices climb.
And they will start rolling out significant GRIs and surcharges on non-Gulf lanes.
Whether these non-Gulf surcharges stick will depend on how long the war lasts.
Governments in China and India are already pushing back.
Houthi threat reverses Red Sea return: carriers that had begun tentatively returning services through the Red Sea (CMA CGM, Maersk/Gemini) have re-diverted all vessels away from the Southern Red Sea after Houthi threats to resume attacks, marking a big step backward from the staged Suez return that had been building since October.
TARIFFS
The Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs in late February.
The administration responded with Section 122 10% global tariffs expiring July 24th.
A promised increase to 15% for select countries has not yet materialized.
Section 122 is already facing legal challenges, and the USTR says Section 301 investigations are underway to replace IEEPA tariffs before the July deadline.
AIR FREIGHT
In this environment, air cargo is no longer just a mode of transport—it is a strategic enabler of global commerce.
Air cargo hit harder than ocean: Gulf air carrier hubs are globally significant: unlike containers, the Gulf hosts hubs for Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad (~13% of global air cargo capacity combined), making the war’s airspace closure impact immediate and broad.
Airports across the region were shut in the first week; Emirates has since resumed >50% of flights via safe air corridors, but Qatar’s Doha hub (~600 flights/day) remains fully suspended.
Air rates spiked: China–North America +20%, China–Europe +16%, and Southeast Asia to North America +50%, to Europe +65%.
Some rate easing has begun as UAE hubs partially reopen, but with Qatar still offline, the market may still be facing a challenge.