The transportation market and logistics industry are constantly evolving due to geopolitical shifts, trade disputes, and changing customs policies that are constantly reshaping global supply chains.

This market update highlights the latest trends in air and sea freight, offering insights and strategies to help navigate these challenges.

AIR FREIGHT

Seasonal demand, front loading of shipments to avoid tariffs (in the USA) as well as lower fuel prices helped air cargo demand rise again.

The temporary suspension of the tariffs war between Washington and Beijing did not solve everything and air freight market between China and the United States remains under pressure.

The end of the de minimis exemption has led to the cancellation of approximately 40 daily cargo flights between China and the United States: this represents a 40% drop in capacity on this route!

This scarcity of supply and the temporary reduction in customs duties—and de minimis—could push up prices on this route.

Airlines are indeed expecting a sharp increase in demand in the short term, especially as Chinese exporters will be looking to ship large quantities before the end of the 90-day deadline.

SEA FREIGHT

The status of US tariffs involves ongoing changes and uncertainty.

The impact of the ongoing US tariff conflict continues to disrupt container shipping, with a significant increase in blank sailings on the Transpacific trade.

Following a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and China, ocean cargo bookings from China to the U.S. lately surged nearly 300%

Carriers warn of delays as congestion increases at European ports: European ports, already weakened by major social movements (such as in Antwerp and Le Havre earlier this year), are experiencing serious congestion: waits of up to 15 days to dock at some terminals in Northern Europe.

But the phenomenon is spreading: China and the United States are beginning to be affected.

In Shanghai and Ningbo, wait times frequently exceed 36 hours. In Busan, it's even 72 hours!

And the situation doesn't seem likely to improve, especially since the same problems are being experienced in the United States.

Experts warn of an increase in delays that could disrupt supply plans while lengthening delivery times.

In short, supply chains are under pressure.

US TARIFFS DEVELOPMENT 

Global baseline tariff: a 10% universal tariff now applies

This global baseline will remain in place during the 90-day suspension of most country-specific tariffs announced on April 9^th, i.e. until July 9th.

Mexico and Canada: U.S. Imports from Mexico and Canada now face a 25% tariff unless they meet USMCA’s rules of origin. These countries are excluded from the 90-day tariff pause that applies to other U.S. trade partners

• Reciprocal tariffs have been lowered to 10% for 90 days beginning May 14, 2025
• Fentanyl tariffs remain at 20%
• Section 232 tariffs remain at 25% and will increase to 50% on June 5th
• Section 301 tariffs remain at 7.5% to 100% (depending on HTS)

USA

In a significant shift, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has revised its plans regarding port fee regulations targeting Chinese carriers and shipyards, with enforcement starting on October 14th , 2025.

Key Changes in Fee Structure:

• Chinese operated vessels: starting at USD 50 per net ton, increasing to USD 140 by 2028.
• Chinese built vessels: USD 18 per net ton, rising to USD 33 by 2028, or USD 120 per container, increasing to USD 250 in 2028 - whichever amount is higher.
• Non-U.S. built vessels carrying cars: USD 150 per vehicle.
• Fee application: charges apply only on the first US port call and can occur up to five times per year.

Exemptions:

• Ships operating exclusively between US ports, within the Great Lakes, or to/from Caribbean ports.
• Vessels smaller than 4,000 TEU or on voyages shorter than 2,000 nautical miles.

Consequences for container shipping industry: only 7% of containerships calling US ports in 2024 would have been subject to these fees.

Notably, Chinese companies like COSCO and its sister company OOCL will be significantly impacted, while operators which runs smaller vessels, will avoid these charges.

Timeline:

April 17, 2025: Revised port fee regulations officially went into effect

October 14, 2025: Enforcement begins

2028: Final phased fee increases will be implemented.