AIR FREIGHT
Global air cargo capacity remained volatile through April and May 2026 due to Middle East disruptions and high fuel costs.
Despite softer demand levels, freight rates have remained resilient, with fuel surcharges increasingly becoming the primary cost driver.
At the same time, airlines are shifting towards more short-term pricing mechanisms to better manage ongoing market volatility.
Elevated operating costs — particularly on the Asia–Europe and India–Europe/US trade lanes — continue to underpin the overall high pricing environment.
Jet fuel prices and availability are having big impacts, with many carriers canceling flights on unprofitable lanes, and adjusting routes to access fuel, especially when servicing South East Asia.
SEA FREIGHT
Two months into the Strait of Hormuz closure, Gulf-bound containers are moving via established alternatives but with ongoing congestion, delays, and sharply higher costs.
Fuel costs are the main market-wide impact, still running about 65% above pre-war levels despite easing from March highs.
Carriers are passing costs on, and fuel availability is a growing concern.
For ocean, bunker supply is tight in places but not yet critical, though a prolonged closure could force slow steaming and blank sailings, reducing capacity and pushing rates higher.
Additional rate increases announced by some carriers for June aim to push rates up by about $2k/FEU compared to current levels.
At the same time, major carriers are already preparing another round of increases. CMA CGM has announced new FAK levels effective June 1 that would push Asia-Europe rates to roughly $6000 range.
Besides, persistent vessel delays continue to constrain the effective availability of global container capacity.
Analysis of the March 2026 Global Liner Performance data shows that, despite ongoing carrier efforts to improve schedule reliability, the market has not returned to pre-pandemic norms.
Instead, global schedule reliability has stabilized at a structurally lower level of around 50–65%, while the average delay for late vessel arrivals has increased to roughly five days.
As a result, the total share of global capacity absorbed by vessel delays has doubled to tripled, averaging 5.3% between 2023 and 2026.
In practical terms, this means the market is continuously missing around 1.8 million TEU of capacity.
As of today, a lead time of 4/5 weeks in advance for bookings is required to find spaces nearby at preferential rates.
Without this notice and in case of urgent solution needs, FAK rates will be favored for faster solutions.
It is important to understand that volumes are distributed following a strong increase last month, and that the companies are playing along with the tension on space by implementing blank sailings with the sole purpose of boosting a market that has been at its lowest for a few months.
As a reminder, the applicable rates are indeed those of the ETD, and, as we have experienced in the past, it will be necessary to pre-book the space before knowing the actual price of the booking.
Then, it will depend on whether we maintain the space or not based on the actual booking price.