AIR FREIGHT
IATA data reveals continued market resilience despite Asia-North America route declines and a strong intra-Asia and Asia-Europe performance.
Airfreight activity remains strong as shippers prioritise urgent goods ahead of tariff deadlines and mitigate ocean-network disruption.
High-tech, automotive, and e-commerce shipments continue to drive demand.
Global air cargo capacity continues to rise (global air cargo capacity is up 4% YoY) supported by freighter expansion and strong demand from sectors such as electronics and perishables.
Nevertheless, regional imbalances and tariff-related disruptions are contributing to volatility, particularly on Asia–U.S. and India–U.S. trade lanes.
Asia–Europe lanes show strong demand, especially for electronics and a replacement of E-commerce demand: the volumes that used to go to the US are now directed to Europe.
Integrators are reducing capacity on Asia–North America lanes due to tariff pressures and the stop of de-minimis.
On the Asia to USA route, President Trump's threat of new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports has driven urgent demand for airfreight capacity from China to the US
Tariff uncertainty has seen high air cargo demand, constrained capacity and rising rates out of North China to the US this month, despite the shift of volumes from China-US to China-Europe that emerged this year.
Overall, market analysts predict rate softening will drive contract restructuring as forwarders compete for market share in a flattening volume environment: a market downturn shall see airfreight rates drop in 2026, prompting shippers to seek longer-term contracts to their advantage.
SEA FREIGHT
The maritime import market from Asia is currently quite unclear: discussions about a possible GRI (General Rate Increase) continue, without real visibility on its effective implementation.
Besides, severe congestion persists in Europe, especially in Antwerp and Rotterdam, due to strikes and weather disruptions.
Global schedule reliability stands at 65.3%, with Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd leading performance.
The United States and China have agreed to suspend retaliatory port fees on each other’s vessels for one year, marking a significant pause in a central pillar of the Trump administration’s push to counter China’s shipbuilding dominance.
The U.S.-China trade deal sees overall tariff reductions, halved fentanyl-related tariffs (from 20 to 10%) , rare earths streamlined, and expanded agricultural purchases.
Some implementation details remain pending, including CBP confirmation and exemption guidance, particularly for U.S.–China and U.S.–Vietnam agreements.