The Middle East disruption, which began on February 28, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliation, is an example that has triggered widespread airspace closures and security risks across key maritime corridors.
More than six months later, air cargo capacity has partially recovered and schedules have been restored on many routes.
However, the network that returned looks different from the one that existed before, and shippers are still absorbing the effects.
While the event itself is significant, the pattern it reveals extends far beyond one region and beyond geopolitics.
Typhoons, low water on major inland waterways and other natural events set off the same chain reaction.
Even though global supply chains are accustomed to disruption, what is constantly underestimated is the duration of its impact.
In tightly balanced networks, even a single day of disruption can cascade into weeks of backlog, volatility and cost pressure, lingering well after routes reopen and schedules resume.
Headlines often focus on closures and rerouting, but the greater risk sits downstream: tightening capacity, unstable costs and network imbalances that take far longer to unwind.
As disruption becomes a more consistent feature of global trade, understanding how it travels through the system is now critical to effective planning.
AIR FREIGHT
The latest data from TAC Index (the price reporting agency on airfreight markets and the calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight indices) show that rates have surged again of late.
The global Baltic Air Freight Index gained 4.7% in October, reaching a figure 26.4% up year on year – and above the highest points of the last two peak seasons, which typically occur in the run-up to Thanksgiving in the US and Christmas in Europe.
This year, TAC noted, rates were already starting from elevated levels resulting from disruption to markets caused by the conflict in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine.
These same conflicts have also caused a surge in jet fuel prices – up by 113.7% year on year, according to the latest IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor.
Full-market rates are 25% above last year and spot rates 32%.
The Transpacific is the tightest market on AI server and semiconductor demand: China to US tonnage is up 17%; China and Hong Kong to Europe is still 10% below last year after the EU de minimis change, but the gap is narrowing.
The air cargo industry is about to enter its busy peak season and much attention is being paid to the transpacific trade lane, where strong demand for semiconductors and data centers has fueled rapid demand growth this year.
SEA FREIGHT
The container carrier march back through the Red Sea continues, with an estimated nearly two-thirds of total Asia - Europe capacity now restored.
Another typhoon rumbled through the Far East starting lately: typhoon Champi closed container ports and airports in Taiwan, mostly spared operations at East China ports before weakening as it continued on toward Japan.
The major Chinese container hubs continue their recovery from previous storm disruptions over the summer, though most are still not completely back to normal.
Congestion has been one factor keeping some pressure on container rates even as demand eases post peak season.
Some vessel bunching from ships now taking the shorter Red Sea route and arriving ahead of schedule may be slowing the recovery.
Though demand is cool on Asia - Europe lanes, carriers are scheduling rate increases for November, with prices already trending up since mid-month as congestion and blanked sailings assist carrier attempts at rate bumps for now.
As typhoon-driven backlogs in the Far East persist, congestion at key N. Europe hubs is lingering too.
The backups could take months to unwind completely and, alongside elevated fuel costs, could keep some upward pressure on rates even before the pre-Lunar New Year rush begins.