AIR FREIGHT
Air cargo supply chains out of Asia have been in recovery mode in recent days following the impact of last week’s Super Typhoon Ragasa as well as the pre-Golden week rush and backlogs caused by the temporary closure of Asia-Europe rail operations.
All affected airports may be clearing backlogs over the next couple of weeks, once the holidays are over.
Air cargo capacity is up globally, driven by freighter expansion and strong demand from sectors like electronics and perishables.
However, regional imbalances and tariff-related disruptions are creating volatility, especially on Asia–US and India–US lanes.
Indeed, air cargo market faces looming capacity shortage amid delivery delays: the industry is bracing for a capacity crunch as fleets age and new freighter deliveries from Boeing and Airbus continue to slip.
Around 150 out of 630 large wide-body freighters worldwide are nearing or have surpassed their 25-year retirement threshold, leaving carriers with limited replacement options.
Both Airbus and Boeing are grappling with supply chain challenges that are delaying aircraft programs: Boeing’s 777-8F freighter is now expected no earlier than
2028, while Airbus’s A350 freighter has been pushed to the second half of 2027.
Global e-commerce flows, especially from Asia to Western markets, remain a key driver of demand.
Yet tariff changes, geopolitical risks, and the end of duty-free allowances for low-value Chinese parcels are slowing growth.
Analysts note that if capacity remains tight, freight rates are likely to rise.
However, with demand still volatile, the sector faces ongoing uncertainty.
Industry leaders stress that companies will need financial resilience to navigate the turbulence ahead.
SEA FREIGHT
Global container volumes remain strong, but rates continue to decline due to overcapacity, and very uncertain second half of the year with Asia–Europe and Intra-Asia trades particularly affected.
Port congestion persists in key regions like Europe and Brazil, while schedule reliability has slightly deteriorated.
