AIR FREIGHT
Air cargo capacity grew by double-digit percentage levels last year, with belly-hold capacity continuing to recover and freighter space remaining above pre-Covid levels.
In 2024, total air cargo capacity in airfreight ton/km terms (ATK) was up 10% year on year to 442bn ATK.
The increase was led by the return of passenger services as overall capacity increased by 13% year on year and is now just 1% behind pre-Covid 2019 levels.
Meanwhile, freighter capacity was up 8% year on year in 2024 as the industry continues to rely on all-cargo aircraft more than it did in the past.
Compared with pre-Covid 2019 levels, freighter capacity is up 43%.
The largest increases in capacity are rather unsurprisingly on the main east-west trades out of Asia, where e-commerce demand fueled rapid demand growth in 2024.
Looking ahead, it is expected that it will be hard for the air cargo market to continue growing at the same pace.
Source Rotate 2025
ATK = Available Ton Kilometer
The air cargo industry outlook for 2025 is positive following a busy December but the market also faces a range of risks, including an overreliance on e-commerce.
Indeed, the airfreight market is increasingly reliant on e-commerce volumes, but there isn’t anything to plug the gap should e-commerce trade flounder.
The overall outlook for air cargo remains one of growth. But reports of countries aiming to crack down on the Chinese e-commerce platforms, for example, if this was to happen, would have a sizeable impact in markets around the world because what’s going to take the place of these volumes?
SEA FREIGHT
February 2025 will mark the start of a restructuring of the global container shipping market around four main units.
This transformation will have consequences for ports and shipping company clients alike.
The world of shipping alliances have not been substantially modified since 2017.
The three main alliances currently bring together 10 major global shipping companies:
The 2M alliance will disappear.
Maersk will partner with Hapag Lloyd in a new alliance called Gemini, while MSC has opted to operate alone on the lines it currently operates within the alliance.
Ocean Alliance will continue with the same members and services.
The Alliance will have three members instead of four following the departure of Hapag Lloyd and will be known as the Premier Alliance.
Data source: shipping companies - © Upply
Besides, it has become quite the norm to have delays in ports as the latter are becoming more and more congested:
Below is the list of the 5 Most Congested Ports in 2025
- Port of Los Angeles, USA
Reason for Congestion: High cargo volumes from ongoing trade growth and workforce limitations have created persistent bottlenecks.
Impact on Supply Chains: delays in unloading and transit times, increased storage fees, and a need for rerouting shipments.
Current Average Wait Times: 2.5–3 days
- Port of Long Beach, USA
Reason for Congestion: linked to the adjacent Port of Los Angeles, facing similar issues with freight surges and labor constraints.
Impact on Supply Chains: rising costs from demurrage and detention lead to significant disruption for shippers.
Current Average Wait Times: Approximately 3 days
- Port of Shanghai, China
Reason for Congestion: high demand for exports and operational delays caused by infrastructure challenges.
Impact on Supply Chains: prolonged transit times for Asian and global shipments, driving up shipping costs.
Current Average Wait Times: 0.8 days, up by 77% from the previous month
- Port of Ningbo-Zhoushan, China
Reason for Congestion: increased freight volumes and systemic capacity constraints.
Impact on Supply Chains: delays in shipments to Europe and the Americas, adding logistical complexities.
Current Average Wait Times: 0.4 days, showing a 70% increase
- Port of Antwerp, Belgium
Reason for Congestion: surge in container volumes and regional trade growth within Europe.
Impact on Supply Chains: higher storage costs and extended lead times for European imports and exports.
Current Average Wait Times: 0.4 days, increased by 117%
On another note, the ocean freight market rates are still fluctuating and being volatile: where the Asia to Europe trade lane is seeing some rate decrease, the Asia to Americas is having some rate increase:
USA
The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States might have a profound impact on international trade law, the institutions that uphold it, and relations between the United States, China, and the European Union
Following the most recent announcements, new tariffs have been proposed, impacting trade with Mexico, Canada, and China, with a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada (on hold as of today, Feb 4th) and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, regardless the nature of the imported commodity.
Potential future actions may extend to the UK and Europe, adding further complexity and considerations to global supply chain planning from/to the USA.
Additional regulatory priorities include:
- Expanding export controls on advanced technologies, particularly semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
- Imposing stricter export license denials for goods involving China.
- Monitoring critical minerals and AI-related exports.
In order to mitigate the impact of tariffs, manufacturers are advised to evaluate their supply chains for dependence on imports from countries subject to tariffs.
Diversification of sourcing strategies and exploration of alternative markets should be considered to minimize exposure to trade disruptions.
EUROPE
With the start of 2025, the Schengen area has expanded.
After 13 years of waiting, Romania and Bulgaria fully accessed this area of free movement in January, on the road and in the air.
CBAM
The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) represents a significant development in the global trade policy.
Introduced in 2023, this mechanism establishes a carbon tariff on imports of carbon-intensive products such as steel, cement, aluminium and fertilisers into the EU.
Starting 2026, the CBAM will take full effect, requiring importers to purchase and surrender CBAM certificates corresponding to the embedded emissions of their imported goods.
This effectively imposes a carbon price for these imports, aiming to level the playing field for European producers facing stricter emissions regulations.